Pretend you are president and that you are freakishly vain. Pretend that all you care about is your image. The only reason you want the country to succeed, is because you are leading it. If the country does bad, that is a reflection on your skills. Hard to imagine such a president, but let’s say he was governing our country, how do you think he would handle the economy? Exactly like President Trump is governing. The economy looks good, but it is just a facade.
You don’t have to be Adam Smith to realize imposing STEEP tariffs will force countries to quickly make big American purchases. In turn, such purchases will create a facade of a booming economy. That is exactly what happened, as Trump’s tariff threats implored a surge in soybean exports.
The midterm elections are in just a few weeks. Trump must be sweating balls. If republicans lose the House and Senate, most likely, he will get impeached. It is imperative that the voter is satisfied with the country and the economy when they walk into the voting booth. Imposing this economic facade is the most effective way for Trump to achieve this.
On a side note, Trump’s golden 4.1 GDP growth is great, but numbers even higher than that were not enough in previous elections. In 2014, a democratic government had cemented an amazing 5.1 GDP growth, however in the elections, republicans still took over the House and enlarged their presence in the Senate, NewYorker.
Trump has successfully been fooling Americans ever since he rode down that forsaken escalator. I reckon, a few more months isn’t so crazy to imagine. He may still be hiding behind this facade in November. According to economists though, democrats should be hoping republicans preserve their rule through the elections. Come 2020, you don’t want a single democrat in control, because the accept economic prediction sees a much different economy than today.
“I’m very optimistic about the U.S. economy in the medium term,” Angelé said in a phone interview from Vienna. But he fears the growth isn’t sustainable. “Everything is pointing to an overheating economy.”
The economy is already growing much faster than its long-term potential rate of around 1.5%, with the unemployment rate “way below” its long-term natural rate of around 5%, Angelé said. And that’s before the impact of tax cuts and budget stimulus hits. MarketWatch
It isn’t so much about Trump, although his policies have undoubtedly made the future economic crisis much worse. When the next recession hits, the fact that our deficit is the highest it has ever been, thanks to Trump’s tax cuts, won’t help. Economists have been predicting 2019 or 2020 to be the year of one of, if not, the worst economic crisis in our country’s history.
While Friday’s job report got the markets all excited, perhaps the reason that enthusiasm has cooled is folks are realizing that the 50,000 gain in retail jobs isn’t syncing up with the -4.4% SAAR decline in retail sales over the past three months. Then there is what we are hearing from the horses’ mouth. Walmart and Target both issued weak guidance, as did Kroger, which also suffered from shrinking margins. A tight and tightening job market is unlikely to help with that. Costco missed on EPS, as did Dollar Tree, which also missed on EPS and gave weaker guidance. Big Lots saw a decline in same store sales. At the other end of the spectrum, the 70,000 gain in construction is in conflict with rising mortgage rates, traffic and declining pending home sales, while the 31,000 gain in manufacturing has to face a dollar that is no longer declining, high costs on tariff-related goods, and potentially some sort of trade war. – Telmatica Research
Unemployment may be very tiny, the GDP may be doing great, but wage growth hasn’t budged. Republicans mindlessly vote to give up their healthcare and their benefits to the uber wealthy, hoping that will trickle back down to them. After all, wasn’t that the facade Ronald Reagan tricked America with? Give to the wealthy and it will trickle back down to your table. After giving CEOs the largest tax break in history, 99% of Americans have yet to share the benefits. All the billions of dollars Trump gave to his family and friends, were just hoarded in foreign banks.
Just Google ‘economic crash 2019’ and you’ll see an abundance of financial advisers predict 2019 or 2020 to be the big crash. One of them, written in 2017, actually predicts that the Biggest Crash Ever Is (Probably) Coming by 2020: Harry Dent.
or how about this, written in 2011,
Or this article from The Wall Street Journal, just a few months ago, Economists Think the Next U.S. Recession Could Begin in 2020.
Recessions like this are all but guaranteed. Of course, presidential decisions might make it better or worse, but the cycle of recessions assure their occurrence. Be grateful that Hillary won’t be at the helm of the ship when it goes down.